Draft Course Proposal:

Government 2015. Introduction to computational modeling for social scientists

Time: Spring 2003, Wed. 2:00-4:00pm Room: WCFIA, 1033 Mass. Ave. Rm. 331

Course web site: http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~gov2015/

Instructor:

Lars-Erik Cederman WCFIA, 1033 Mass Ave Rm 318A, 495-8923

Office hours: Wed. 10-12am cederman@wcfia.harvard.edu

Short description: This seminar provides an introduction to Java programming using a package called RePast. Basic agent-based models will be covered. Programming experience desirable but not required.

Thanks to advances in the natural sciences and the decreased cost of computer technology, computational modeling is becoming increasingly popular as a tool in the social sciences. This seminar focuses on agent-based modeling, which is a particular type of computational methodology that allows the analyst to create, analyze, and experiment with, artificial worlds populated by agents that interact in non-trivial ways. In these “complex adaptive systems,” computation is used to simulate agents’ cognitive processes and behavior in order to explore emergent macro phenomena, i.e. structural patterns that are not reducible to, or even understandable in terms of, properties of the micro-level agents. Such “bottom up” models typically feature local and dispersed interaction rather than centralized control. Moreover, as opposed to traditional models that either assume either a small number of dissimilar or numerous identical actors, agent-based models normally include large numbers of heterogeneous agents. Rather than studying equilibrium behavior, the focus is often on dynamics and transient trajectories far from equilibrium. Finally, instead of assuming the environment to be fixed, many agent-based models let the agents constitute their own endogenous environment. Thus, agent-based modeling should be seen as a complement to rational-choice techniques, which has the potential to bridge the gap between conventional formal tools and qualitative theorizing of complex settings.

While no previous programming experience is required, it is expected that at the end of this seminar the students will be able to create a simple model or modify a more complex system. The course starts with an introduction to the rationale and principles of agent-based modeling, followed by a number of sessions on Java programming. The remainder of the schedule centers on a Java-based simulation package called RePast, which offers a software library of computational tools: see http://repast.sourceforge.net/. While primarily a methodological course, numerous examples of substantive applications drawn from the literature will also be discussed.

Summary of the contents:

· Introduction to the principles of agent-based modeling.

· Introduction to Java programming.

· Introduction to RePast modeling.

The students will be evaluated based on weekly homework exercises, usually requiring hands-on programming. There will also be a programming project at the end of the course that requires the participants either to extend an existing RePast model, or to build their own models.

Recommended readings about agent-based modeling:

Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Casti, John L. 1997. Would-Be Worlds: How Simulation Is Changing the Frontiers of Science. New York: Wiley.

Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations Develop and Dissolve. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Epstein, Joshua M. and Robert Axtell. 1996. Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science From the Bottom Up. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

Holland, John H. 1995. Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

Recommended web pages on complexity and computational modeling

The Santa Fe Institute, the “Mecca of complexity studies”: http://www.santafe.edu/

The Center for the Study of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan: http://www.pscs.umich.edu/ See especially Rick Riolo’s home page: http://www.pscs.umich.edu/PEOPLE/rlr-home.html for details on agent-based modeling, and Robert Axelrod’s page: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~axe/ for general references to complexity.

The Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, Brookings Institution (follow link to “agent based modeling”): http://www.brook.edu/ES/dynamics/models/ascape/

The European web sites on “Computer simulation of societies” http://www.soc.surrey.ac.uk/research/simsoc/ and the “European Social Simulation Association” http://essa.cfpm.org/ offer interesting links.

Leigh Tesfatsios provides a comprehensive web page on computational economics:

http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/ace.htm

See also the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS.html

and the Journal for Computational and Mathematical Theory (CMOT)

http://www.kluweronline.com/issn/1381-298X (from where PDF files can be downloaded)

Java resources:

We will rely extensively on the following textbook, which offers the best introduction to Java programming for beginners:

Schildt, Herbert. 2001. Java2: A Beginner’s Guide. Osborne McGraw Hill.

Should be available at the MIT Bookstore and Quantum Books (on Broadway by Kendall Square; do mention that you’re taking this course which should guarantee a discount)

Those who already have previous programming experience, especially in C and C++, may want to consult:

Eckel, Bruce. 1998. Thinking in Java. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.